The Way This Strange Season Broke the Traditional Coach of the Year Blueprint.

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's competition is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still