‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Availability.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran disrupt energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the most affected: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are switching to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, accounts say up to a 20% of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their fuel reserves have dwindled with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are varying as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Authority's View

Yet, the authorities states there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and authorities say stocks are being prioritized to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being prioritised for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been sparked by misinformation. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of scooters outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the common threat of panic buying.

An industry representative states exploitative practices.

"Retailers are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.